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Weekly Interest Rate Outlook

 

 

 

 

Date: Friday, 19 September 2025

Next SARB MPC: Thursday, 23 October 2025

Current repo rate: 7.00%

Current prime lending rate: 10.50%

 

 

What moved this week

 

• SARB left the repo rate unchanged at 7.00% in September, as expected.

• The rand weakened slightly to around R17.45 per US dollar.

• Bond yields moved up modestly, with the 2035 government bond at about 9.18%.

 

 

Inflation pulse

 

• Headline inflation eased to 3.3% year on year in August, down from 3.5% in July.

• Core inflation held steady near 3.1%.

• Food and fuel inflation softened, while administered prices such as utilities remain a risk.

 

 

Policy setting

 

• The MPC vote was split: most members backed holding, while two preferred a cut.

• SARB has shifted its focus to the lower end of its inflation band (3%) instead of the midpoint.

• Inflation is projected to average 3.4% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026 gradually converging toward 3%.

 

 

Our call

 

• Expect no change at the October MPC meeting, with the repo rate holding at 7.00%.

• Cuts are possible later if inflation keeps easing and rand stability continues.

 

 

Outlook at a glance

 

• Rates remain stable for now.

• Key factors to watch are CPI releases, fuel price adjustments, and the rand. These will guide when the next cut comes.

 

 

^{Disclaimer: This outlook is based on local research and market analysis. It reflects current trends and projections, but economic conditions can shift. Cromox Ultimate Finance accpets no liability for any errors or omissions. This update is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.}